CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 19/09 - 06Z MON 20/09 2004
ISSUED: 18/09 19:11Z
FORECASTER: DAHL/LOWINSKI

General thunderstorms are forecast across central Mediterranean Sea and the central Balkans.

SYNOPSIS

Moderate to strong mid- upper/level flow located over NWRN and NRN Europe at the beginning of the forecast period ... with several short-waves moving across the British Isles and Scandinavia. At the surface ... associated cold-front keeps migrating into NRN-/central Europe. Ahead of this feature ... warm but relatively dry air will move into parts of eastern Europe. Farther south ... relatively weak upper-level low over southern Italy will move little ... and warm, moist air remains east of it over the E-central Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

...central Mediterranean...
Focus for convective activity will likely exist over the central Mediterranean ahead of weakening upper low. Saturday's soundings reveal nearly neutral lapse rates ... and MLCAPE will likely be on the order of 500 J/kg. 15 m/s 500 hPa flow ... and 5 to 10 m/s 850 hPa flow will likely be insufficient to pose much of a severe TSTM threat ... though a few hail/wind events approaching severe levels ... and maybe a brief tornado may occur ... especially over the W Ionian Sea where low-level shear should be strongest.

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